From Blue to Red: A District in Transition
And my latest podcasts with Ann Coulter and Shelby and Eli Steele
I wanted to share an article about my congressional race that came out in the Florida’s Voice late last week. My district in Palm Beach County, Florida’s 22nd, used to be considered a safe Democratic district. But no longer.
Just as we’re witnessing throughout the state of Florida, voter demographics in my district have changed dramatically over the past three years, as Americans like us continue to flee the progressive mismanagement of blue cities and blue states.
The following chart shows new registered voters in the district. For 23 out of the past 24 months we’ve seen more new Republican registrations in the district than Democrats. From 2000-2020, Democrats averaged 42% of the new registrations and Republicans averaged 27%. Since 2021, the share of Democrat registrations has fallen to 28% and Republican registrations have risen to 32%. Also of note, Independents have risen from 32% of the new registrations to 40%.
Voter registration changes show the same trends as new registrations. Since the beginning of 2021, we’ve averaged 3 times as many voters switching each month from Democrat to Republican than from Republican to Democrat. Since October of last year, that figure has gone up to 7 to 1, almost certainly the result of a post-October 7th Jewish realignment.
This chart shows monthly registration changes in the district. Republicans have gained voters from registration changes nearly every month over the past three years while Democrats have lost voters every month since January 2021.
I am biased of course, but I believe that this congressional district is the most interesting in the country. It is one of the only districts in the nation in active transition from blue to red. It is perhaps the fastest growing district in the country, is one of the oldest, has the highest Jewish population, and is home to Donald Trump and many of the largest Republican donors in the country. Nearly every political dynamic happening nationally is happening here. We’re getting the message out that this is a race to watch!
Here’s the article from Florida’s Voice.
Voter trends paint worrying trend for Lois Frankel, a worthy GOP challenger in Andrew Gutmann
BOYNTON BEACH, Fla. – Florida Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel has been a fixture in Florida politics for decades now.
A traditionally very liberal Jewish American, in a very liberal Jewish district, has been a winning combination for her. But, the times and the tide may be changing.
Consider the times. For years now, Frankel has entrenched herself as a potent Nancy Pelosi ally and an outspoken figurehead for women’s rights and the Democratic Party’s tax-and-spend caucus.
But the times are changing. Frankel’s longstanding “get whatever I want” standing with party leadership has suffered a blow with Pelosi’s announced retirement.
Also, her alignment with the shrill, anti-Jewish and pro-Palestinian voices of “The Squad” are no longer paying her political dividends.
The Democratic Party has been completely taken over by a radicalized, anti-Jew movement. The post-Oct. 7 rallies in support of Hamas and their massacre of innocent Jewish citizens were loudly supported by the fiercest elements of the Democratic base.
This is now leading to a severe erosion of the Democratic base in key areas of Jewish voter concentration. Hence, a tidal effect.
Consider that tide. Frankel’s district is contained entirely within Palm Beach County. Gov. Ron DeSantis won the county in 2022, and at book closing in October of that year, Democrats still had a 110,000 vote advantage over Republicans.
Today, that Democratic lead has shrunk to only 60,000 – that’s almost a 50% loss.
If the same trend continues year on year, the parties could be almost at parity countywide by October before the election.
Now, consider Frankel’s district specifically. The tidal effect is wearing her down. In 2022, 42% of the district was Democratic, 27% Republican and 30% non-partisan.
As of October of last year, that number had changed. Democrats had lost 2%, and NPAs gained close to 3%. Republicans had picked up about 1%.
But after the Hamas attacks and the tepid response from President Joe Biden, the heavily Jewish district has been hemorrhaging Democratic voters – with seven Democratic voters switching to Republican to every one Republican switching to Democratic over the last three months.
Now, today, the district is 40% Democratic, almost 30% Republican and almost 32% non-partisan. If this trend continues, this district won’t just be a long shot, it will be in play.
We can never ignore the context of the competition. Frankel is a titan who has been around forever.
But this year, Republicans may have finally found a match. Andrew Gutmann, the money-leader by a country mile in this contest, is Jewish, an investment banker and a political refugee from woke New York.
He made a splash on the national scene during the coronavirus pandemic when he and his wife took issue with the new curriculum of their daughter’s exclusive prep school that emphasized critical theory elements, fueling the neo-racism and antisemitism of the Democratic Party.
In other words, he’s got a story: it’s a good one, and it stands in stark contrast to the Frankel’s cozying up to her friends from the “river to the sea” movement.
Beating Frankel won’t be easy, but the district is getting better – much better, and the Republicans could have a champion in Gutmann who can go toe-to-toe with her on the issue that may end up being the Democratic Party’s most significant vulnerability since President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
I was honored to be a guest recently on Ann Coulter’s podcast Unsafe. We talked about my Brearley Letter, the state of woke education, DEI, and my congressional campaign. I hope you enjoy.
After a short hiatus, we are back with Take Back Our Schools. Welcome Back! The podcast is available on all major podcast outlets, including Apple, Google, Spotify and Stitcher.
Men of Steele
On this episode, Beth and I speak with the powerhouse father-son team of Shelby and Eli Steele about race relations in America. Both Shelby and Eli share their views on the recent Claudine Gay affair at Harvard University and give their opinions on whether this event marks a turning point in the fight against the diversity, equity and inclusion regime. Shelby talks about his own upbringing and his family’s experience in the Civil Rights movement and remarks upon why the Civil Rights movement went wrong. He talks about how the idea of “white guilt” plays a prominent role in today’s obsession with identity. Shelby also shares his strong views on the similarities between how victimhood is used by race hustlers in the black community and with the ongoing events in Israel and with Hamas. Eli talks about why he, as a part black, part Jewish and hearing impaired man, thoroughly rejects identity politics and victimhood. Eli also discusses the documentary he is currently making with his father, “White Guilt.”
As always, I’d love to hear from you. You can email me at andrew@speakupforeducation.org. I am also on Twitter @AndrewGutmann. My campaign website is andrewgutmann.com. Support for the campaign is always appreciated!
God bless your effort at attaining a seat in Congress! Never knew who the Rep was. She's bad news; can't ever figure people like her out, same with a creep like Jerry Nadler. Were you in his district in NYC? Right next to AOC. Ugh.
I'm sorry that Lee Zeldin lost for Governor. I have a college classmate who lives in his former district on L I -- absolutely raving nuts hatred of Zeldin comments in our college class notes recently. I won't name the former women's college, but Brearley supplied a fair number of classmates;-) Anyway, this person is not the only one; another Summa Cum Laude grad a couple of years ago during COVID spouted a blast of hatred re: Pres Trump. That's the last time I spoke to her -- and a number of others, including family members who live in the city. Pretty sad. I ascribe a lot of this to plain old JEALOUSY.
I live in Middle TN and we are growing fast, too, with refugees from Michigan, Illinois and Half-Backs, people returning north from Florida;-) Not too many Jews that I can see, although there were some here 100 yrs ago, running several stores and other well-regarded businesses. More in Memphis, like awful Rep. Steve Cohen. If you're elected watch out for him. The hairdresser I go to is from Brooklyn -- she's Jewish with non-Jew husband. She and I commiserate politically, as she's a Trump supporter, can't stand Obama etc. She told me that she has family members who won't speak to her because of that. Maybe some of them have changed their minds and are heading to Palm Beach Co. in time to vote for you! Good Luck.
You better win because this nation is sinking fast.